Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 28.360469 30.308727 32.409799 34.859750 37.658540 40.781509 44.566380
2025-10-26 26.006970 28.739921 31.876100 35.801333 40.673857 46.657154 54.792088
2025-11-02 24.269168 27.368715 31.065154 35.909736 42.277440 50.668028 63.176916
2025-11-09 22.465230 25.665774 29.579481 34.870045 42.107221 52.149238 68.239641
2025-11-16 20.992044 24.218210 28.239059 33.806772 41.670097 53.058866 72.496162
2025-11-23 20.392793 23.802907 28.151702 34.354696 43.477002 57.457057 83.518353
2025-11-30 19.650300 23.139331 27.667400 34.277098 44.318153 60.449294 92.980514
2025-12-07 18.894731 22.405562 27.026110 33.898572 44.624187 62.567867 101.441723
2025-12-14 17.842663 21.223160 25.699795 32.414320 43.022546 61.107135 101.668535
2025-12-21 17.409901 20.847773 25.462572 32.514265 43.966407 64.355308 114.073068
2025-12-28 17.097122 20.615220 25.404652 32.867994 45.353663 68.684466 131.564218
2026-01-04 16.431412 19.868667 24.575220 31.969437 44.495611 68.398912 135.852399
2026-01-11 15.987794 19.485907 24.354479 32.182902 45.936372 73.886294 165.375753
2026-01-18 15.713090 19.334745 24.476175 32.985179 48.648508 83.314587 226.559404
2026-01-25 15.286905 18.937914 24.194945 33.079985 50.019435 90.146539 297.079730
2026-02-01 14.656709 18.215133 23.373343 32.179643 49.259563 91.142462 336.963821
2026-02-08 14.070853 17.531559 22.575145 31.256001 48.330062 91.426110 376.413325
2026-02-15 13.855222 17.376780 22.581216 31.732351 50.420025 101.555906 610.714178
2026-02-22 13.534600 17.051346 22.298959 31.664938 51.313113 108.464113 985.604317
2026-03-01 13.180586 16.661259 21.892646 31.335865 51.561241 113.351297 1684.704030
2026-03-08 12.644746 15.981684 20.995534 30.041799 49.400063 108.416658 1570.131899
2026-03-15 12.426547 15.772103 20.844667 30.129125 50.536176 117.001318 6352.346339
2026-03-22 12.265614 15.641933 20.814049 30.437975 52.266460 129.444205 NaN